Monthly Oscar Roundup: ‘Little Women’ & ‘1917’ Shake Up Wide-Open Race

We’re just twelve days away from the announcement of the nominations for the Golden Globes in January 2020, which will signal where each and every contender is in the awards race towards the all important Academy Awards in mid-February, two weeks earlier this year.

We have been bombarded by multiple factors: review embargoes dropping on certain films, warmly to the such of ‘1917’ and ‘Little Women’, not to mention box office success and failure for the likes of ‘Ford v Ferrari’ and ‘A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood’.

But arguably the strongest reactions we have heard in the past two weeks is for Sam Mendes’s first non-Bond film for over ten years – ‘1917’. The WW1 thriller, which, utilises Roger Deakins’s legendary cinematography like never before, to create the sense of the film being a one-shot take – essentially the opening half an hour of ’Saving Private Ryan’ but for 110 minutes.

Make no mistake, ‘1917’ will likely be a major Oscar contender in below-the-line categories like ‘Dunkirk’ was two years ago, taking three Oscar wins for Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Editing (cough-cough resemblance of Christopher Nolan’s and Sam Mendes’s past decade).

Essentially the warm reviews of the Universal film, currently holding 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, will likely secure a nomination at the very least for the Best Picture race. The Academy have often leaned towards war films, certainly when it comes to nominations, with ‘Dunkirk’, ‘The Hurt Locker’ and ‘Saving Private Ryan’ coming into mind, however winning the race is another question we’ll probably have to wait for until the new year.

And we mustn’t rule out ‘1917”s chances. This year’s Best Picture race is one of the widest-open races I can recollect. Sure, there are juggernauts such as ‘The Irishman’ and ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’, of which are the clear bookies favourites, however equally there are smaller indie films such as ‘Marriage Story’, ‘Jojo Rabbit’, ‘The Two Popes’ and ‘Parasite’ which could do damage.

Greta Gerwig’s ‘Little Women’ also debuted warmly. In what is only her second film, the adaptation of the famous Jane Austin novel has a splendid 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, and looks to be a favourable option for the Academy.

Like ‘1917’, the Academy have tendancies for picking certain genres of films when it comes to their nominations. Like War films, period-set drama’s often do extremely well around the board. Last year it was ‘The Favourite”s turn, and this year it looks like it will be ‘Little Women’.

But whilst reviews are critical in their campaign for success in the awards season, a warm reception financially at the cinemas is arguably even more important. Films like ‘1917’, ‘Little Women’ and ‘Bombshell’ may not drop until Christmas Day, meaning that members of HFPA, BAFTA and AMPAS will have to go it alone with their opinion, but if they want to win the race, then they will have to be successful at the box office.

Sure, there is a history of indie films winning Best Picture. In 2009, ‘The Hurt Locker’ debuted in June, only took $18M in the US, yet eight months later found itself winning six Academy Awards including Best Picture and Director, defeating the pre-night favourites of ‘Avatar’ and ‘Inglourious Basterds’.

Before we get onto the rankings, it should also be mentioned that Clint Eastwood’s ‘Richard Jewell’ debuted strongly at the AFI film festival. The story of Richard Jewell, heroically saves thousands of lives from an exploding bomb at the 1996 Olympics, but is unjustly vilified by journalists and the press who falsely report that he was a terrorist, has captivated critics despite some controversy around the portrayal of journalism in the film, and thus has captured a seriously strong 91% score on Rotten Tomatoes.

In fact as a director, it is his third highest score ever on the review aggregator’s website. Last year, whilst ‘The Mule’ wasn’t able to break into the Oscars race, it was a huge Christmas box office sleeper, taking more than $100M in the US and $175M globally against a $50M budget. Whilst Warner Brothers have ‘Joker’ as their main rider in the race, watchout for maybe Paul Walter Hauser possibly making the Best Actor race even more hectic, who knows, maybe even Clint Eastwood could take a surprise nod for directing.

But without further adieu, here are your updated rankings:

Best Picture

1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
The Two Popes
Little Women
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Richard Jewell
Bombshell
A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
The Farewell
A Hidden Life

I’m not saying that there is a pattern occurring, but I may as well say what I’m thinking. I feel like that the top six films, maybe now even the top seven thanks to the impressive reviews of ‘Little Women’ are looking strong for nominations in the Best Picture category. We are A LONG WAY OUT, and the precursors of the Golden Globes and SAG nominations will help us determine whether I am right or right, but due to the fact that the nominations come out two days before the ceremony for the Golden Globes, we won’t actually have a major awards ceremony taking place before the announcement of the nominations on the fifth of January, so for now, you’ll just have to trust me.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Sam Mendes, 1917
Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life

Scorsese still leads the way, but like a majority of the big league categories, it is a completely wide-open race. Tarantino still looks like a strong threat as he continues to look for his first Best Director Oscar, whilst Sam Mendes has moved up the ranks as he looks for his second BD Oscar. Joon-Ho Bong is still on course for his first Oscar nomination, whilst Greta Gerwig has moved into the top five as she looks for her second Best Director nomination in three years. Mangold, Baumbach, Meirelles and Heller are all very close behind, whilst legends of the industry including Terrence Malick and Clint Eastwood are circling like vultures, waiting for someone to make a mistake.

Best Actor

Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

Adam Driver has solidified himself as the frontrunner in Best Actor at this point in time, but ironically the likely success of ‘The Rise Of Skywalker’ in December could sabotage his chances of walking away with the Oscar. Joaquin Phoenix is the most popular option amongst audiences as he looks for his fourth nomination in just under twenty years, with Banderas one of the most consistent candidates I have ever seen. What’s interesting is that Leonardo DiCaprio has been squeezed out for the first time, proving that he isn’t impenetrable in this race. Your move Sony.

Best Actress

Renée Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Alfre Woodward, Clemency
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Whilst Zellweger and Johansson have fought for the lead for the past few months, it is Zellweger who is slowly but surely establishing a comfortable lead as she looks for her second Academy Award, with Johansson somehow looking for her first nomination. But meanwhile Saoirse Ronan is moving up the ranks like her film as she contends for her fourth nomination in her career since 2010. Thanks to the relative box office success of ‘Harriet’, Cynthia Erivo still has a chance for her first Oscar nomination whilst Charlize Theron’s dramatic performance in ‘Bombshell’ rounds out the top five.