At this very moment in time whilst writing this article, Christopher Nolan, Robert Pattinson and John David Washington are off filming some action sequences in the heart of Mumbai.
This is of course part of the huge six-month shoot for Nolan’s eleventh feature film entitled ‘TENET’ (for more information for the film, click here), and is shooting across seven countries, having already shot in Estonia, Italy, the UK and India, with Denmark, Norway and one other unnamed country to come.
This is Nolan’s biggest original film shoot of his career, spanning nearly 180 days since the commencation of shooting in mid-June, with the Warner Brothers film finishing up just before Christmas.
After the critical and commercial success of ‘Dunkirk’ in the Summer of 2017, which went on to earn $529M globally against a $100M budget, and took three out of its eight Oscar nominations that year, Nolan’s second most successful film at the Oscars only behind ‘Inception’.
With all the capitol he has earned up over the years, he has decided to go all in for ‘TENET’. The plot is currently unknown. The project is described as an action epic revolving around international espionage, time travel, and evolution.
With a budget of $225M, it is Nolan’s biggest budget barring ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ in 2012 at $250M, but his biggest original production ever. In fact, it is the second biggest original production of all time, with James Cameron’s ‘Avatar’ only having a bigger budget at $237M.
In my opinion, it is becoming clear and clearer that star power is fading and the popularity of directors is now drawing people into seeing films.
For example we saw how Quentin Tarantino made ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’ a major success due to his household name, and in this bracket, Christopher Nolan is in a league of his own for box office successes, not once having a dud, and is currently on a five film streak of films making more than $500M globally.
In fact, since 2008’s ‘The Dark Knight’, Nolan’s films have made $4.1BN globally across five films, against a budget of just $670M between all five films, yielding Warner Brothers an estimated $2BN profit. Damn.
‘TENET’ is Nolan’s most commercial film since ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ in 2012, with ‘Interstellar’ and ‘Dunkirk’ two very specific films that appeal to certain demographics.
An international espionage film set around the world in seven different countries will attract any average cinemagoer. Just look at the Bond films, making $600M+ internationally alone sans the United States.
And this leads me onto my main point. ‘TENET’ may be the film where, like ‘Inception’, it doesn’t to be huge in the United States to be a hit.
By filming in India with the film starring Dimple Kapadia, the legendary Bollywood actor, the film will break out big time in the Middle Kingdom. ‘Infinity War’ took $43M in the region, and I would expect something similar with ‘TENET’, if not more.
The film is already guaranteed a $50M opening weekend in the United States, but looking at the film and the placing of the film in July, I would expect to see this one open with at least $60M.
With the legs Warner Brothers create naturally with Nolan films, we should see ‘TENET’ being the first Nolan film breaking the $200M barrier since ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ in 2012′, which made that amount in a whopping five days.
If it plays similarly to ‘Interstellar’ internationally, then we’re looking at $490M internationally, so $690M globally. But let’s face it, ‘TENET’ will be substantially more accessible for the general audience considering the subject matter, although the mind-time-bending plot and runtime might affect it.
If it plays like ‘Inception’, which is the perfect comparison for this film, then we’re looking at $537M internationally, pushing the film closer to $750M. Not bad at all. But that was 2010.
In the past 10 years, the film industry has approximately grown by 11.7%. If we assume that it plays similarly to ‘Inception’ in this marketplace, then we’re looking at $599M internationally, with another, say, $235M from the US, which would give the film $830M worldwide. Now that’s more like it, putting it ahead of films such as ‘Mission Impossible: Fallout’, ‘Inception’ and ‘Hobbs & Shaw’. This is all spitballing.
My point being is that ‘TENET’ is the most commercial and accessable for general audiences who aren’t Nolan geeks or cinephiles. It’s the biggest blockbuster of the year, and in fact, barring ‘Avatar 2”s monumental $250M budget at the very moment, it will be the second biggest film in terms of budget of 2020.
Warner Brothers have invested heavily into this film as their tentpole film of the year along with ‘Wonder Woman 1984’, and who knows, maybe they could both eek towards the $1BN mark. Only time will tell. Hope you enjoyed that pun. Now it’s time for a radical notion.
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