This weekend we had three new wide releases, and whilst none of them came in above their expectations, for most of them they’re all relative wins.
At the top of the box office is ‘Godzilla: King Of The Monsters’, and that’s about all of the good news. The $170M budgeted film came in slightly below expectations, although I highlight slightly, to take a $50M opening weekend.
Ok, this is what tracking was predicting, and with poor reviews, this isn’t bad, although when it took $6.3M on Thursday Night Previews, most pundits were thinking a $60-65M debut on the cards, but the opening bow was frontloaded by major Godzilla fans.
Nevertheless, it was still relatively strong opening bow, enough to take the top spot. From here, its looking dismal in the United States, with a likely $130M domestic cume to come, which against, the budget, isn’t great.
Globally the film took a $180M bow, which is worse than it sounds, as many were expecting around $220M. Still, the film took a solid $67M bow in China, which is more than 2014’s ‘Godzilla’, and just below 2017 ‘Kong: Skull Island”s $71M. From here, $150M in the Middle Kingdom is likely, meaning that China will be the films biggest market, however the film is merely looking like ‘The Crimes Of Grindelwald’, setting up the big fight at the end, this one being ‘Godzilla v Kong’ in March 2020. We’re probably looking at $450M worldwide, another small profit for a large budgeted film by Warners.
Taking the second spot was Guy Ritchie’s ‘Aladdin’, which took one of the best post-Memorial Day weekend holds in recent days. The film dropped 54% for a $42M second weekend. enough for $184M in the US for the $183M-budgeted film. The film is close to $450M worldwide, meaning it is the highest grossing film by Disney that isn’t from Marvel or Pixar since ‘Beauty & The Beast’ back in March 2017.
That’s a big result for Disney, as they were relying on Marvel and Pixar to dominate the box office, but this time around it looks like that ‘Aladdin’, ‘Toy Story 4’, ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ and ‘The Lion King’ will set alight the Summer box office. 2018 Summer was for Warner Brothers, 2019 Summer is Disney’s. From here, the film is looking to be a breakout hit, with $700M worldwide on the cards.
Meanwhile Dexter Fletcher’s R-Rated ‘Rocketman’ hit 3,600 theatres across the US, and was within Paramount’s estimation, taking a $25M opening weekend. It didn’t excel like I had hoped, but then again, an R-Rated music biopic which contains gay sex was never going to be a breakout hit. Nevertheless Paramount will be looking for this one to leg it out over the Summer as the adult film to choose, and along with the UK, financially this one will be fine, probably looking at $80M in the US, and $200M worldwide. The question is whether Taron Egerton can challenge at the Oscars. Unlikely I think.
Next up is Universal/Blumhouse’s ‘Ma’, starring Octavia Spencer. The $5M-budgeted R-Rated horror-thriller was always going to make money, but Blumhouse had been on an unwanted streak with films not quite living up to expectations. Despite this, ‘Ma’ was able to take a solid $18.5M opening bow, in line with the upper end of expectations.
For a $5M budgeted film, this is awesome, and will already be in the black. There aren’t any horror films until ‘Child’s Play’ in three weeks time, which means that this one could be a small hit. I’m thinking $50M in the US, and $90M worldwide.
Onto the holdovers that aren’t ‘Aladdin’. ‘John Wick: Chapter Three’ entered the perilous situation of a post-Memorial Weekend, and was hit slightly harder than one hoped, but still took a $11M third weekend. That pushes it’s domestic gross $128M in the US. That’s still an amazing figure for Lionsgate, and are seemingly looking at $150M in the US alone, which is an exponential jump from the second chapter, which took $92M in the US.
Whilst the Keanu Reeves-starer is facing tough competition stateside, it is holding better internationally. In fact the domestic/international ratio is slowly shrinking, now at 56/44, whilst heading into the weekend it was at 60/40. Currently the film is at a huge $222M worldwide, already making an neat profit. If the ratio continues to shrink, then we’re probably looking at 53/47. This would give the film $283M worldwide come the end of its theatrical run, with a small chance of $300M globally, but this one has certainly been the sleeper hit of the Summer.
‘Avengers: Endgame’ finally dropped theatres as it entered its sixth weekend of release, taking $7.8M in the US. This pushes its US gross to $815.6M. Yes, it is slowing down, but this is expected. We’re probably looking at $840M by the end of its run, a comfortable silver medal in the domestic box office race.
In the question of Will It Beat ‘Avatar’ globally, the odds are ever becoming more and more in favour of James Cameron. The Russo Brothers’s $356M epic is at $2.714BN worldwide, meaning it needs $74M to become the highest grossing film of all time. Over the past couple of weeks, my sneaking suspicion of Disney making sure that ‘Avatar’ remains at the top spot due to the nature of marketing for ‘Avatar 2’ as the sequel to the biggest film ever has grown. Nevertheless, it will be really close.
‘Detective Pikachu’ held reasonably well this weekend, taking $6.6M in its fourth weekend of release, dropping 50% for $130.7M in the US. Who would have guessed that ‘John Wick: Chapter Three’ was going to make more than ‘Detective Pikachu’ at the US box office this Summer? Despite this, ‘Pikachu’ will make more globally, and currently stands at $393M worldwide. It will probably finish just south of $450M worldwide, and against a $150M budget, whilst not a huge profit, it should be enough for Warners to greenlight a sequel.
Next weekend we have the double release of ‘Dark Phoenix’, the final instalment in the X-Men saga, and ‘The Secret Life Of Pets 2’. The former is tracking for $50M, but the Disney marketing has been so good that this one could edge closer to $60M. Meanwhile ‘Secret Life Of Pets 2’ is looking at $65-70M, the sweetspot for an Illumination film.
Here are the weekend estimates below:
1. Godzilla: King Of The Monsters – $49.3M
2. Aladdin – $42.2M
3. Rocketman – $25M
4. Ma – $18.4M
5. John Wick: Chapter Three – $11.1M
UKFILMS 