Today is the nineteenth of January, meaning we are three days away from the nominations for the 90th Academy Awards being announced. This means it’s time for the final time this year to predict the nominations for the Academy Awards.
Best Picture
The one thing that is hampering my predictions for the Best Picture nominations is that I’m not sure how many nominations there will be. In the previous two years, there have been nine films, but for a film to get nominated it needs to have 6% of the AMPAS votes.
This year has been divisive in films for Oscar voters, from ‘The Favourite’ to ‘Vice’ to ‘Mary Poppins Returns’, there are some Oscar worthy films that aren’t guaranteed of nominations, however, there are some that are almost guaranteed.
The five films I’m talking about are: ‘Roma’, ‘Green Book’, ‘The Favourite’, ‘A Star Is Born’ and ‘BlacKkKlansman’. These five films are all guaranteed and are seen as the only five films that can win Best Picture.
Now we’re onto films we’re not entirely sure on. Firstly, we have ‘Black Panther’. The film was a cinematic event in March and has since become one of the biggest hits of 2018 in the US, however though it was in the Oscar talk for the entirety of November and December, the fact that its been completely excluded from some events such as the BAFTA’s does worry me. Nevertheless, a majority of AMPAS voters are American, and the film was a huge deal in the US, so I would be surprised to see it miss out on a nomination, especially considering how many nominations its likely to garner in the below-the-line categories.
Then we have ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’. When released in October, the film received mixed reviews but was loved by audiences, and since then has become one of the highest grossing Dramas of all time. The film took home two Golden Globe awards, including Best Drama, so it would be highly surprising if the film missed out on a nomination after winning the Golden Globe.
That being said, the HFPA really loved the film, whilst AMPAS voters tend to prefer for indie and period films. This one is a coin toss.
Then we have the massively divisive ‘Vice’ by Adam McKay. The filmmakers latest film is a follow up to ‘The Big Short’ in 2015, where he won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. This time around, Christian Bale and a star-studded cast surround him in one the most divisive films of 2018, if not the decade. I do believe the film will make the nominations, especially considering that its been nominated in every big awards ceremony, including the PGA awards.
Now we’re heading onto the films that are really foggy. Barry Jenkins’s follow-up to his 2016 Oscar-winner ‘Moonlight’ was one for the critics, however the film hasn’t quite had the support many were expecting.
‘Beale Street’ is loved by almost every critic, however whilst the film will receive nominations in major categories like Best Original Score, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress (the later of which it is the favourite), whether it has enough scope to get that all important 6% is a question that is difficult to answer.
‘First Man’ was a disappointment at the box office, however the film has been seeing a resurgence recently. The film was nominated for seven BAFTA awards and word-on-the-street is that there might be enough voters to sneak this one into the Best Picture nominations. When considering that the film will be nominated for five below-the-line categories, likely to win at least two, it would be surprisingly to see the film missing from the nominations.
The final film that could make it into the nominations is ‘Cold War’. In the US, ‘Roma’ has been taking all the foreign language love, but in Europe, ‘Cold War’ was huge. The film is just a hauntingly beautiful picture from Pawelikowski and recently he got nominated for Directing and Screenplay at the BAFTA’s. There is growing support for the film, but one could argue that it is too little to late for this gem.
Best Director
There is no doubt about the fact that Cuarón is the favourite here, and Spike Lee is assured of a nomination. The directors race from there is wide open. Cooper seemed like a gimme, however I’m feeling there could be a Ben Affleck-snub with him, with AMPAS putting him in Best Actor instead – the general consensus was that he was better as acting than directing. McKay is on track for his first directors nomination after being snubbed for ‘The Big Short’, and then on from here it gets really tricky.
We have Barry Jenkins for ‘Beale Street’, although AMPAS may do what they did to McDonagh and McKay recently; put him in Screenplay and give him a great chance of the win in order to make room in the Director’s race – that’s my gut feeling here.
Then we have Yorgos Lanthimos for his period dramedy ‘The Favourite’. The film will garner a lot of nominations including Best Picture, however the film is very… strange, like many of Lanthimos’s films. I’m not sure that the Academy will endorse him twice (once for directing and once for screenplay).
As we continue to eliminate contenders, we move onto Peter Farrelly. The director of ‘Green Book’, which won three Golden Globes was cemented in the race after the ceremony, but recent scandals have tainted his chances. ‘Green Book’ is still likely to take at least two Academy Awards home, however I don’t think AMPAS would endorse someone who has been in some sort of scandal especially in this day and age.
That, for me, leaves only one more director: Pawel Pawlikowski. This may be a huge surprise here, as the director of ‘Cold War’ wasn’t even mentioned in this race until last week. He is a favourite with AMPAS from his previous films and word on the street is that there isn’t enough love for the film to get a Best Picture nomination, however a director’s nod doesn’t seem out of the question here.
Best Actor
Well, we have two actors who can still win the category, those being Christian Bale, who took home to Critics Choice Awards last weekend and Rami Malek. Bradley Cooper is set for his fifth nomination in acting as he is looking like he is the new Leonardo DiCarprio with the Oscars. Viggo Mortensen may have had that scandal in November, and though that might have stripped his chances for the win, I would be extremely surprised to see the actor missing from the announcements as he looks for his third nomination.
The final spot is debated by many. John David Washington is probably what the Academy will choose, however he is currently vulnerable from other actors. Ethan Hawke took many of the indie voters nominations, however I don’t think that he has enough to get into the top five here. Then there is Willem Dafoe. The film, ‘At Eternity’s Gate’, received positive reviews but didn’t do amazingly at the box office, but as an actor who is always labelled overdue and unlucky at the Oscars, a fourth nomination might just do the trick.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga can all still win the award and are all assured of a nomination. For the final two nominations, there are three possible contenders: Emily Blunt, Melissa McCarthy and Yalitza Aparicio. These three actresses could not be in more different roles, however three does not go into two.
After the SAG and GG nominations, everyone assumed Blunt was assured of what is a long overdue second nomination, however recently Aparicio has been making up ground for her work in Roma. It would be highly unlikely that the film that is likely to take home Best Picture doesn’t have an acting nomination. McCarthy gave her performance of a lifetime in ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me’ and AMPAS do like giving nominations to newcomers. This is a tough one.
Best Supporting Actor
Some are still questioning why Ali is in Supporting Actor, much like the case of Viola Davis with ‘Fences’ in 2016. Like ‘Fences’, Ali is the clear favourite for the win, and his second win in the category in three years.
Adam Driver and Richard E. Grant are assured of nominations, but it will take a SAG win to chance the minds of Oscar voters about whose going to take the award home.
Then, like the Actress race, there are three actors who can all make it into the nominations. We have Sam Elliott, who was the frontrunner for this category in December before his snub at the Golden Globes, although his nomination at the SAG awards reassured voters, but at the BAFTA’s he was snubbed again.
Then we have Timothee Chalamet, who has been in every major ceremony, although the fact that he’s the only possible nomination for his film makes him vulnerable.
Finally we have Sam Rockwell. The defending champion in this category missed out on the SAG’s but was nominated for the Golden Globes and BAFTA’s. When Elliott missed out, Rockwell was in, and vice-versa.
Best Supporting Actress
Once this category seemed so secure, now, it’s anyones game. Regina King is the favourite for the category and will get nominated, although her miss at the SAG awards will give Adams a chance to gain ground on her.
The duo of Weisz and Stone from ‘The Favourite’ are set for a double nomination, but when it comes to the real thing their votes will cancel each other out.
The final spot is hotly contested between Emily Blunt for ‘A Quiet Place, Claire Foy for ‘First Man and Margot Robbie for ‘Mary Queen Of Scots’.
‘A Quiet Place’ was one of the best films of the year however the film won’t make Best Picture, however it can still make headway in some big categories including this one. If Blunt doesn’t make the cut in the Actresses race, then expect to see her here.
Foy was in the race for a long time until ‘First Man”s disappointment at the box office, but if the film garners a nomination for Best Picture, then her chances will significantly improve.
Finally we have Margot Robbie, off her first nomination for ‘I, Tonya’ last year. She is the only possibility for the film in the acting categories, although if I were AMPAS, I would wait another year because her performance as Sharon Tate in Tarentino’s ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’ will likely get a nomination for her.
Best Original Screenplay
The Original Screenplay category is rammed tight with potential nominees, eight in total. ‘Green Book’, ‘The Favourite’ & ‘Roma’ are all secure for nominations, leaving two spots. McKay should be looking at the double that he missed out on with ‘The Big Short’, although if he makes it into directing, there is a chance he could miss out on Screenplay.
The final spot if being contested by four films: ‘First Reformed’, ‘Eighth Grade’, ‘Cold War’ and ‘A Quiet Place’. All have great chances, but you’ll see which one I’m going for below.
Best Adapted Screenplay
There are seven possibilities here, but ‘Beale Street’ and ‘BlacKkKlansman’ will be the ones battling it out for the win. ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ looks secure in third place, and it would be quite a snub if ‘Star Is Born’ didn’t make it into this one.
The final spot is being played out by ‘Leave No Trace’, ‘Black Panther’ and ‘The Death Of Stalin’. The later of which has been gaining traction although the film was released a long time ago. I think the former and one of the best reviewed films on Rotten Tomatoes will likely take the final nomination in this category.
Best Original Score
Justin Hurwitz is currently on course for his second Oscar in three years but will face competition from Nicholas Britell for the win. Add on Alexandre Desplat, and you have three nominees who are almost certain conformations.
Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman are likely to get a nod for ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ whether they deserve it or not, and that leaves one spot. There are three contenders, but I’m ruling out Ludwig Göransson despite his Golden Globe nomination.
The final spot will be fought over by Terrence Blanchard and Marco Beltrami. In my personal opinion Blanchard’s soundtrack doesn’t deserve a nod as it is too similar to Spike Lee’s 2006 film starring Clive Owen ‘Inside Man’. Forget about the Best Picture race, whoever gets nominated here will likely tell us whether the Academy is moving on or whether they’re stuck in the past.
Best Film Editing
It is always said that if your film isn’t nominated in this category, it cannot win Best Picture. ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’, ‘Vice’, ‘Star Is Born’ and ‘Roma’ are all looking at nominations in this category, which will help their chances elsewhere. The final spot is being fought over by ‘BlacKkKlansman’ and ‘First Man’. I think this will determine whether or not ‘First Man’ gets an Oscar nod for Best Picture or not, so keep your eyes out for this one.
Best Cinematography
The cinematography race is all but sealed with the exception that James Luxton for ‘Beale Street’ could sneak in if AMPAS love the film.
So here are my final predictions for the nominations for the 90th Academy Awards:
Best Picture
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- BlacKkKlansman
- Green Book
- The Favourite
- Vice
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Director
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay, Vice
- Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Best Actor
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
- Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Supporting Actor
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Claire Foy, First Man
Best Original Screenplay
- Green Book
- Roma
- The Favourite
- Vice
- Eighth Grade
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Star Is Born
- BlacKkKlansman
- Leave No Trace
Best Original Score
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Isle Of Dogs
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Quiet Place
Best Original Song
- A Star Is Born
- RBG
- Black Panther
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Boy Erased
Best Cinematography
- Cold War
- Roma
- First Man
- The Favourite
- A Star Is Born
Best Film Editing
- Vice
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- A Star Is Born
- Roma
- BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Black Panther
- Roma
Best Costume Design
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Mary Queen Of Scots
Best Sound Editing
- A Quiet Place
- Roma
- First Man
- Mission Impossible: Fallout
- Ready Player One
Best Sound Mixing
- A Quiet Place
- Roma
- First Man
- A Star Is Born
- Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects
- Ready Player One
- Avengers: Infinity War
- First Man
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
- Black Panther
Best Animated Feature
- Isle Of Dogs
- The Incredibles 2
- Mirai
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
- Ralph Breaks The Internet
Best Foreign Language Feature
- Roma (MEXICO)
- Cold War (POLAND)
- Shoplifters (JAPAN)
- Capernaum (LEBANON)
- Never Look Away (GERMANY)
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling
- Vice
- Border
- Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Documentary Feature
- RBG
- Won’t You Be My Neighbour?
- Free Solo
- Minding The Gap
- Three Identical Strangers
MULTIPLE NOMINEES
- A Star Is Born – 9
- The Favourite – 8
- Roma – 9
- Black Panther – 5
- Vice – 8
- Green Book – 4
- BlacKkKlansman – 5
- First Man – 7
- Mary Poppins Returns – 5
- Bohemian Rhapsody – 6
- If Beale Street Could Talk – 3
- A Quiet Place – 3
- Cold War – 3
- Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 3
- Isle Of Dogs – 2
- RBG – 2
- Ready Player One – 2
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