This weekend is really the last weekend of the Summer where we see a biggie being released (A film opening to above $50M), and the top three films of this weekend will all be hoping to leg it out over the remaining four weeks of August before Warner Brother’s ‘It Chapter Two’ will ignite the box office on the sixth of September.
Taking the top spot will be Universal’s ‘Hobbs & Shaw’ in 4,250 locations stateside. The film is a spin-off of the ‘Fast & Furious’ franchise, and is starring Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham, Vanessa Kirby, Helen Mirren and Idris Elba (weirdly four of them being Brits).
The pre-release tracking three weeks ago indicated that the film would be looking at a $60-65M opening debut, which signalled the fact that essentially Universal were trading in for a smaller opening weekend compared to the franchise for longer legs over the Summer.
The reviews embargo doesn’t drop until tomorrow, which is a bit late for these sorts of films. Normally this indicates the reviews are poor, but I’ve heard differently from multiple sources saying it is popcorn cinema at its best, and even if the reviews are mixed, it won’t affect the fans of the actors and franchises coming out to see it on opening day.
It’s hard to put a number on this one, but I’m seeing anywhere from $64-68M in its opening debut, but keep an eye if it can notch it a bit higher than $70M. Remember, if it’s lower than this, then it is fine. Remember ‘Mission Impossible: Fallout’ last year? That Tom Cruise film ‘only’ took $62M in its opening, but then took $225M in the US and $792M globally.
From a $65M opening, ‘Hobbs & Shaw’ will hope to make it to $180M in the US, and aim to touch $200M, but internationally is where the film will make money against it’s $200M budget, particularly in China, where the F&F franchise is huge. $750M+ globally is the target for Universal here.
Moving onto the holdovers, more specifically, ‘The Lion King’. The Disney pic may have taken a whopping $191M debut, but it dropped rather heavily for a kids friendly film in its second weekend, in the end taking $76.5M, a 60.3% drop, when industry expectations were for $85-100M.
Is this the sign that the reviews are hurting the film? Could be. The third weekend is the one which will tell us this, as it is usually a softer weekend. A 45% drop this weekend would give the film $42M in its third frame, enough for roughly $440M in the US. Oh, and it will have passed $1BN worldwide as early as Wednesday.
It should probably finish with $530-550M in the US if it continue like this, and $1.3BN globally, so yeah, a pretty huge hit, but, this is for another article, Disney are running out of remakes to do.
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Moving onto Quentin Tarantino’s ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’, which took a solid $41M opening frame, above industry expectations, and enough to dethrone 2009’s ‘Inglourious Basterds’ as Tarantino’s biggest opening.
The R-Rated 2.75 hour drama-thriller (?) should be at $60-64M by Thursday after seven days of release, pacing along the lines of ‘Django Unchained’. Looking at those two films, which should be the best comps, ‘Basterds’ dropped 49% whilst ‘Unchained’ only dropped 33.3%. Quite a gap between the two.
The B Cinemascore is playing in my head that this one won’t leg it out like all of us are hoping, but nevertheless I am seeing a 43-45% drop in its second frame, similar to that of 2017’s ‘Dunkirk’, which opened one week before ‘Hollywood’. That would give the Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio & Margot Robbie starer a $22-24M second weekend, which would better both ‘Basterds’ and ‘Django”s second weekend. By Sunday after ten days, ‘Hollywood’ should be standing at $84-87M if it plays like this, besting ‘Basterds”s $73M ten-day cume and right on line with ‘Django Unchained’ at $86M.
A drop like this would put the film on track for a domestic cume closer to $150M than $125M, which would be a real hit for Sony who need this one to leg out in the United States to sell it as a hit, whilst we’ll have to wait (including myself) until the fourteenth of August when the film debuts in the UK, France & Germany, Tarantino’s three biggest foreign markets that often take 33-40% of the films overseas cume.
If it does get to $150M in the US, then it will have grossed more than ‘Detective Pikachu’, ‘Dumbo’, ‘Shazam!’ and ‘Godzilla: King Of The Monsters’, which proves that a film doesn’t need to be a blockbuster to be a hit. Internationally, if the film does take $150M, then $350M globally is the minimum, whilst $400M worldwide is a more likely aim.
If it can get to that figure, then by all means ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’ is a major success for Tarantino, and would be his second biggest film globally only behind ‘Django Unchained’ back in 2012 when it took $425M.
There is the chance that this one could get into China, due to the fact that they are more lenient on Hollywood exports and how this one is so different that it just can’t not go to the biggest moviegoing market in the world, which could be the films saving grace.
Word on the street is that Sony over-spended on the films marketing campaign, and the break-even figure is more like $275M when it should be at $240M for a $90M Production Budget, but if it can get to $400M globally, then it will make more than a nine digit profit for Sony, and the Oscar season is still to come. All of that is based off a second weekend.
‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ should take another $7.5M in its fifth weekend, and remain in the top five, pushing the films US cume to $358M. It is now pacing behind ‘Homecoming’, but the film is basically done all of its business already. It should finish with $375M in the US, less than other MCU sequels such as ‘GOTG Vol.2’, but worldwide it will finish just south of $1.1BN globally.
‘Toy Story 4’ continues to not show any signs of slowing down. In its sixth weekend it only dropped 26% and remains in the $10M+ weekend figures, taking $10.4M. The Pixar film should hit $400M in the US either on Thursday or Friday, but that’s pointless to argue over. The fact of the matter is that this one is just huge in the US and doesn’t look like it will be stopped throughout August.
It should be looking at another $7M, which will push it to $407M in the US, and almost looks dead certain to overtake ‘Toy Story 3”s $415M US cume to become the highest grossing film in the franchise in the US. Globally it will be at $950M and looks good to become only Pixar’s fourth $1BN+ grosser.
‘Crawl’ will be at $35M in the US and $60M globally against a $13M budget – another small hit for Paramount. ‘Yesterday’ will be at $66M in the US and should finish with $70M as it finally slows down. Globally the film will be at $120-125M by the end of the week, against a $25M budget. Great hit for Universal.
‘Annabelle: Comes Home’ will be at $72M in the US but a whopping $220M globally, against just a budget of $27M. Another major hit for WB and The Conjuring Universe. ‘The Secret Life Of Pets 2’ will be at $155M in the US and $350M globally against a $80M budget, ‘Rocketman’ will be at $190M globally and ‘John Wick 3’ will pass $170M in the US. Here are the weekend predictions:
1. Hobbs & Shaw – $67.4M
2. The Lion King – $42.5M
3. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood – $22.8M
4. Toy Story 4 – $7.6M
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home – $7.5M
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