This weekend will be the one that finally dethrones ‘Avengers: Endgame’ after three weeks on top of the box office throne (albeit ‘Detective Pikachu’) nearly knocked it off last weekend.
This weekend we will see the entrance of ‘John Wick: Chapter 3’ enter just 3,650 theatres stateside, but the film is tracking for a $35-40M opening weekend, with Lionsgate predicting an opening closer to the upper section of that bound.
The film continues the R-Rated action-thriller franchise, five years after the original and two years after the sequel, which opened to $33M in February 2017. The reviews are simply stunning, with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes calling it an action masterpiece. Whether or not this will translate into a big boffo opening is another question, but all the signs are pointing towards a healthy opening.
I would say Lionsgate are right with their $40M prediction, but there is a chance that the film could open more than that, closer to $45M. Considering the production budget was $50M, this is a good result.
Meanwhile ‘Avengers: Endgame’ will be looking to take a $32M fourth weekend, which would be enough for $775M in the US. Yes, the film isn’t going to top ‘The Force Awakens’, but is rather looking at a still mind-blowing $830-850M in the US, enough for second place. Meanwhile internationally the film should still top ‘Avatar’, but is has gone from ‘definite’ to ‘likely’, so this race isn’t over yet.
Warners will be hoping for a good hold for ‘Pikachu’ which took a reasonably good $54M opening weekend, and $170M worldwide. Considering the kid-friendly demographic and the fact that ‘John Wick 3’ isn’t exactly a kids movie, I’m seeing a hold of 45% for a $30M second weekend, which should push the film to $100M in ten days. Not bad at all.
Meanwhile ‘A Dog’s Journey’ is debuting in 3,200 locations. The film is tracking for a low double digits opening weekend, but there is a chance for the film to excel to $15M in its opening weekend. I’m going to go with that considering the franchise base and decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Here are the weekend predictions:
1. ‘John Wick: Chapter 3’ – $42.4M
2. ‘Avengers: Endgame’ – $32.5M
3. ‘Detective Pikachu’ – $29.5M
4. ‘A Dog’s Journey’ – $14.4M
5. ‘The Sun Is Also A Star’ – $7.7M
UKFILMS 