I should state quickly that I am sorry for the ‘Captain Marvel’ overload, however its the only major thing currently happening in the film industry, albeit with the occasional casting call.
The Brie Larson-Carol Danvers epic took a staggering $14M Tuesday, ahead of ‘Batman v Superman’ ($13M) and behind ‘Beauty and The Beast’ for the second biggest Tuesday ever in March. The film will finish its first week in release just shy of $200M in the US, and is heading for $750M by the end of Sunday after ten days.
The film will be facing a trio of new wide releases, however I think ‘Captain Marvel’ will dampen their hopes rather than them dampening ‘Marvel”s.
So taking the top spot will be ‘Captain Marvel’ for a second consecutive week.
Looking at other superhero films that opened in the range of ‘Captain Marvel’, ‘GOTG Vol.2’ dropped 55.5% in its second weekend, ‘Civil War’ at 59.5%, ‘Iron Man 3’ at 58.4%, and ‘Batman v Superman’ on the extreme at 69.1%. Let’s just say that won’t happen for ‘Marvel’.
So we must look at some Marvel original films that opening similar to ‘Captain Marvel’. ‘Black Panther’, which opened to $202M dropped 44.7%, ‘The Avengers’ which opening to $207.4M dropped 50.3% (still an amazing record), ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ which opened to $117M dropped 62.2%, whilst ‘Iron Man’, which opened to $98M ten years ago dropped 48.8%. From these films we get a clearer picture that we should be expecting a HUGE drop from ‘Captain Marvel’.
Therefore I’m thinking that a drop around of what ‘GOTG Vol.2’ dropped would be the best comp., as it opening to $147M just two years ago. A 51-53% drop would give the film a $72-75M second weekend.
First we have ‘Captive State’ debuting in 2,500 locations, starring John Goodman. The film has a budget of $25M and is about the residents of Chicago dealing with the life under the rule of ET’s. The film looks decent, but it hasn’t had enough widespread marketing for it to turn a good profit. I’m seeing it struggling to hit double digits, but still a $10M opening weekend is my prediction, although I hope it can reach higher.
Then, likely to take second place will be ‘Wonder Park’ in 3,500 locations. The animated film will likely only slightly dent ‘Captain Marvel’, but the film has a huge $100M budget, and marketing has frankly gone dark as if the studio has already given up on the film. That being said, a $20M OW is not out of reach.
Finally we have ‘Five Feat Apart’, a rom-com by CBS Films. The film will open in 2,200 locations and I’m seeing this one playing similarly to ‘Greta’, with a $6M opening weekend.
Meanwhile other films holding over; ‘HTTYD 3’ will be hitting $130M in the US and will be nearing $500M worldwide, not quite having the legs of its predecessors. ‘A Madea Family Funeral’ will be hitting $60M as it continues to be a great finale for Tyler Perry in his franchise, and finally ‘The LEGO Movie 2’ will finally pass $100M in the US, a mini-win/consolidation prize for Warner Brothers.
Here are the weekend predictions:
1. ‘Captain Marvel’ – $72.7M
2. ‘Wonder Park’ – $18.2M
3. ‘Captive State’ – $10.4M
4. ‘How To Train Your Dragon 3’ – $8.6M
5. ‘A Madea Family Funeral – $6.8M