I’ve been predicting the 2019 Oscars now for nearly half a year, but we are just over two months out from the awards season opener and the No.2 to the Oscars; The Golden Globes.
The Golden Globes tend to offer a more diverse field, with the categories of Comedy/Musical allowing films into the spotlight that usually wouldn’t be in.
Nearly every major film has chosen whether to campaign their film in the Comedy/Musical or Drama section, and surprisingly both A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody, two films that centre in on music, will be campaigning in the Drama categories, making those categories much more tighter and the Comedy ones now have much more room.
There is only one film that hasn’t chosen its allegiance, which is Adam McKay’s Vice. The film is said to be a Dramedy, but surely a film such as this that centres in on a former Vice-President will be a drama? However we all remember The Big Short, the Oscar-winning film about the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis. That was nominated in the Comedy categories. Sure, it had some laughs, but it wasn’t a comedy. For now though I’ll put it in the comedy categories though.
BlacKKKlansman is also a tough one, as it is a satirical comedy, but I’ll put that one in comedy too.
So then; let’s get to it.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
And we begin with the big one; Best Motion Picture – Drama. With the addition of A Star Is Born it looks like that there will be some shocks, with some big films possibly missing out. Though First Man received some tough audience reactions, it is in second place, but only just ahead of Barry Jenkins’s If Beale Street Could Talk. Then it gets a bit fuzzy, with Boy Erased in fourth and after premiering a new trailer, On The Basis Of Sex takes the final nomination spot, but Steve McQueen’s Widows is close behind. Clint Eastwood’s The Mule isn’t too far out, with Black Panther and A Quiet Place still in with a shout.
1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Boy Erased
5. On The Basis Of Sex
6. Widows
7. The Mule
8. Black Panther
9. A Quiet Place
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Green Book, like Star, is currently the clear favourite (pun-intended) for this one, with Lanthimos’s The Favourite occupying second place, and it is neck-a-neck in third with Spike Lee’s BlacKKKlansman and Vice. The Coen Brother’s The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs is looking at a possible nomination, but is facing competition from Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins Returns. If they really love it, the HFPA could go for The Old Man & The Gun.
1. Green Book
2. The Favourite
3. BlacKKKlansman
4. Vice
5. The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. Mary Poppins Returns
8. The Old Man & The Gun
9. Stan & Ollie
10. Eighth Grade
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron and Bradley Cooper could not be closer in this one, as they are the two to beat. Barry Jenkins and Spike Lee look comfortable in third and fourth, but the battle for the final nomination is going to be a very close one, with three in mind for that, between Chazelle, Lanthimos and Farelly. Take your pick.
1. Alfonso Cuaron
2. Bradley Cooper
3. Peter Farelly
4. Barry Jenkins
5. Spike Lee
6. Damien Chazelle
7. Yorgos Lanthimos
8. Clint Eastwood
9. Adam McKay
10. Steve McQueen
Best Actor – Drama
Bradley Cooper could be on for a double Golden Globe win. He is currently a clear front runner (sorry for the puns), with Rami Malek currently taking a close second position with Willem Dafoe for his portrayal (really sorry) of Vincent Van Gogh. Ryan Gosling looks set to return after winning a GG in 2016, and Hugh Jackman could be back after winning a GG for his performance in Les Miserables and getting nominated for The Greatest Showman, but will face competition from Lucas Hedges and Clint Eastwood.
1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
4. Ryan Gosling – First Man
5. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
6. Ben Foster – Leave No Trace
7. Clint Eastwood – The Mule
8. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased
9. Stephen James – If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy
Best Actress – Drama
Could A Star Is Born win everything? Gaga leads the way with no competition from Coleman, it looks like a dead-certain win. Close is second, Jones a steady third, with McCarthy in fourth and Viola Davis holding off Julia Roberts for the final nomination.
1. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
2. Glenn Close – The Wife
3. Felicity Jones – On The Basis Of Sex
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Viola Davis – Widows
6. Julia Roberts – Ben Is Back
7. Toni Colette – Hereditary
8. Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Kindergarten Teacher
9. Yalita Aparicio – Roma
10. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Anyone from the top three could win it, but currently Mortensen just has an edge over Bale and Redford.
1. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
2. Christian Bale – Vice
3. Robert Redford – The Old Man & The Gun
4. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie
5. John David Washington – BlacKKKlansman
6. Steve Coogan – Stan & Ollie
7. Lakeith Stanfield – Sorry To Bother You
8. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool 2
9. Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns
10. Jason Bateman – Game Night
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
This one is a bit thin, with Olivia Coleman having a healthy lead over Emily Blunt and Elsie Fisher. From there it gets hazy, and your guess is as good as mine on this one.
1. Olivia Coleman – The Favourite
2. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
3. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
4. Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians
5. Charlize Theron – Tully
6. Rachael McAdams – Game Night
7. Emma Stone – The Favourite
8. Ross Bryne – Juliet, Naked
9. Sandra Bullock – Ocean’s 8
10. Amy Schumer – I Feel Pretty
Best Supporting Actor
Currently Sam Elliott leads the way but is receiving some pressure from Mahershala Ali for his performance in Green Book. Richard E. Grant is a steady third and Adam Driver has shot up the rankings, overtaking Sam Rockwell who occupies the final nomination spot. Just outside are Chalamet, Hammer and Crowe who all have good chances of a nomination with Hoult entering the top ten for the first time this year.
1. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
2. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Adam Driver – BlacKKKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell – Vice
6. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
7. Armie Hammer – On The Basis Of Sex
8. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased
9. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows
10. Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite
Best Supporting Actress
Though King leads the way in the Oscar predictions, Foy has a tiny advantage over her in what could be a double win for British Actors. Kidman is a steady third, with Weisz in fourth and Cardellini shooting up the rankings to take the final spot away from Amy Adams. Outside there are some strong contenders but haven’t made a move yet.
1. Claire Foy – First Man
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
5. Linda Cardellini – Green Book
6. Amy Adams – Vice
7. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux
8. Marina De Tarvina – Roma
9. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
Best Screenplay
This is a tight one. The Favourite leads the way from Green Book, Roma and Beale Street in a very tight race, but from there the battle for the final nomination is a mess. Currently First Man occupies it, but A Star Is Born and Vice both have a really good shout at it.
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Roma
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. First Man
6. A Star Is Born
7. Vice
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9. Widows
10. Boy Erased
Best Original Score
1. Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Hans Zimmer – Widows
3. Justin Hurwitz – First Man
4. Max Richter – Mary Queen Of Scots
5. Terence Blanchard – BlacKKKlansman
6. Michael Giacchino – The Incredibles 2
7. Carter Burwell – The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs
8. Thomas Ades – Colette
9. Scott Wittman – Mary Poppins Returns
10. James Newton Howard – Fantastic Beasts 2
Best Original Song
1. The Shallow – A Star Is Born
2. I’ll Never Love Again – A Star Is Born
3. All The Stars – Black Panther
4. The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns
5. Always Remember Us This Way – A Star Is Born
6. Revelation – Boy Erased
7. Can’t Knock Me Down – On The Basis Of Sex
Best Animated Feature
1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle Of Dogs
3. Wreck It Ralph 2
4. Smallfoot
5. The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Remember when Pan’s Labyrinth lost? Look to Cold War or Capernaum to upset Roma.
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Capernaum
4. Shoplifters
5. Euthanizer
Total Nominations (MULTIPLE)
A Star Is Born – 8
Green Book – 6
If Beale Street Could Talk – 5
First Man – 5
BlacKKKlansman – 5
The Favourite – 4
Roma – 3
Vice – 3
On The Basis Of Sex – 2
Boy Erased – 2
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 2
Widows – 2
Mary Poppins Returns – 2
Predicted Wins
Best Motion Picture – Drama: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical: Green Book
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Best Actor – Drama: Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Best Actress – Drama: Lady Gada – A Star Is Born
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical: Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical: Olivia Coleman – The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Best Supporting Actress: Claire Foy – First Man
Best Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song: The Shallows (A Star Is Born)
Best Animated Feature: The Incredibles 2
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
A Star Is Born – 5
Green Book – 2
Roma – 2
The Favourite – 2
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