‘It’ To Continue Dominance Smothering Newcomers

well, it was quite a surprise last weekend. we were all expecting an opening of around $65m for stephen king’s latest adaption, but we wouldn’t have thought it would nearly be double to industry expectations at over $123m. this weekend it will take the no.1 spot easily against jennifer lawrence’s new horror film mother! and the new york times bestseller american assassin.
starting with ‘it’. the film will top $200m domestically by the end of this weekend and is looking to rack up more and more records. we don’t expect it to be below a 50% drop and should be in-between 54-59%, putting it roughly at $50-55m for a second weekend. that should put it around $215m domestically and around $330m worldwide, depending on new markets.
in second place should be the action-thriller american assassin starring dylan o’brien and michael keaton. adapted from the new york times bestseller, i don’t see the film topping $15m for it’s three-day and could be much worse. the pace of the film is behind john wick ($14.1m) so a safe bet would be around $11-13m.
right behind it will be darron aronofsky’s new film starring jennifer lawrence and javier bardem, mother! the horror looks to compete with ‘it’ but i would be surprised if it took $12m. the projections are getting lower and lower and with the competition from ‘it’, the question is how low can you go. i think a bet around $10.5m should pay off.
in fourth will be reese witherspoon’s new romantic-comedy home again, which will take another $4.6m. rounding out the top 5 will be the hitman’s bodyguard which should take another $2.8m closing in on a $70m in north america alone.
taylor sheridan’s wind river will continue it’s solid run taking in another $2.2m, only a few million away from the magic $30m number in north america.
in other news christopher nolan’s dunkirk will pass $185m domestically and $500m worldwide this weekend, his fifth film to do so. annabelle: creation is closing in $100m in north america domestically, becoming the only august release to do so. spider-man: homecoming will continue it’s solid run with $330m domestically and around $850m worldwide this weekend thanks to china.
this weekend in china war for the planet of the apes debuts in china and will once again go against spider-man: homecoming. it’s predecessor took $107m in the middle kingdom and since the film currently stands on a mere $369m, it really needs a good result in china.

Weekend Predictions

1. it – $57.5m
2. American Assassin – $12.9M
3. Mother! – $10.7M
4. Home Again – $4.5M
5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard – $2.7M
6. Wind River – $2.3M
7. Annabelle: Creation – $1.7M
8. Leap – $1.3M
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $1.2M
10. Dunkirk – $950K
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