It has been 25 years since Labor Day weekend has not seen a new film debut in over 1,000 theatres. The largest “new” release over Labor Day weekend 2017 is Sony’s re-release of Steven Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, which will be ushered into 901 locations followed by The Weinstein Co.’s Tulip Fever, which recently moved up to take advantage of the absence of a wide release, but will still only launch in 765 locations. Otherwise, Lionsgate is releasing Pantelion’s Hazlo Como Hombre in nearly 400 theatres and, despite the disparity in theatre count, is likely to be the only one of the three to crack the top ten.
benefitting from the struggles of summer 2017 is lionsgate’s the hitman’s bodyguard which will three-peat in august. This weekend i’m anticipating a drop-off around 32% over the three-day and a four-day gross around $9 million or so as the action comedy tops $50 million domestically.
in second place will be warner bros. annabelle:creation for the third week running. it should deliver $5m for it’s three day and $1.5m for its four-day. the film is closing in on $90M domestically and will soon give way for next weekends release it, which is guaranteed to break the September opening weekend record as well as become the largest horror opener of all-time from over 4,000 theatres.
Weinstein saw good business from thriller wind river delivering $4.6m with it’s domestic cume at over $12m before going into labour day. it is adding yet another 507 theatres to take it’s count over 2,600 theatres. expect a very small drop from last weekend around $4.4m for it’s three-day and somewhere around $5.5m for it’s four-day. The same goes for weinstein’s leap!, however wind river should just be slightly ahead.
warner bros. dunkirk looks to rise in the ranks to go back into the top 5 after it’s first weekend out. the ww2 action film is only losing 22 theatres this weekend and should manage $4m for it’s three-day and $5m for four-day. the film will go over $180m domestically on tuesday pacing very similarly to interstellar, nolan’s last film, which took $188m in north america. watch out for it in china where it could take anything from $60m to $135m.
weinstein’s tulip fever starring alicia vikander and christoph waltz shouldn’t even break the top 10. i’m anticipating around $1.5m. Overall, we’re anticipating a three-day that sees the top twelve deliver a combined $42 million, contributing very little to one of the worst Augusts of all-time, currently pacing 36% behind last year. This also marks the final weekend of a lackluster summer that is currently pacing 14.4% behind last year while the yearly domestic box office is now -6.2% off from last year.
next weekend the lackluster summer is over! with it, the stephen king adaption should take a minimum of $60m and as high as $70m.
Three-Day Weekend Estimates:
1 the hitman’s bodyguard – $7.2m
2 annabelle: creation – $5m
3 wind river – $4.4m
4 leap! – $4.2m
5 dunkirk – $4.1m
6 logan lucky – $3.4m
7 spider-man: homecoming – $2.7M
8 hazlo como hombre – $2.6m
9 the emoji movie – $2.4m
10 birth of a dragon – $2.2m
Four-Day Weekend Estimates:
1 the hitman’s bodyguard – $9.3m
2 annabelle: creation – $6.6m
3 wind river – $5.3m
4 leap! – $5.1m
5 dunkirk – $5.1m
6 logan lucky – $4.4m
7 spider-man: homecoming – $3.5m
8 halzo como hombre – $3.2m
9 the emoji movie – $3.0m
10 birth of a dragon – $2.8m