‘Annabelle: Creation” & “Hitman’s Bodyguard” To Battle For No.1

The downward trend continues this weekend as summer box office slows to a crawl. despite two new releases we could be seeing the worst weekend of the year this weekend. lionsgate’s ‘hitman’s bodyguard’ looks to challenge ‘annabelle: creation’ for the top spot this weekend whilst bleecker street are releasing ‘logan lucky’.
At the top of the weekend box office it’s looking like a competitive race between last weekend’s strong opening performance for WB and New Line’s ‘Annabelle: creation’ and Lionsgate and Summit’s ‘the hitman’s bodyguard’. ‘Annabelle 2’ opened well last weekend at $35.1m, which is only a couple of million behind the original. the original dropped 57% in it’s second weekend and the sequel/prequel could go either way. it has outperformed it’s predecessor in the week’s box office suggesting it could fair better in the drop. on the other hand, you could argue then it would be a bigger drop since it’s performing well in the week. still, i’ll put it around a 54% drop for the weekend putting it at $16.1m for a second weekend and to take it’s domestic cume to around $64m, putting it ahead of the original at that stage by $3m.
challenging the horror film is lionsgate & summit’s new action comedy ‘the hitman’s bodyguard’ starring samuel l. jackson and ryan reynolds. the industry expectations are from mid to high teens. i’m putting it at around $14-17M since it’s quite unpredictable but i would expect it more around $15.5m, a very tight race between itself and ‘annabelle 2’.
in third place should be steven soderbergh’s return to the big screen in ‘logan lucky’. the fact that he wanted to make this film out of hollywood raising the money himself and with bleecker street is a sotry in itself. it’s reported a modest opening around $15m would be a huge success for this independent film. it’s going to be hard to get up there though. it’s almost impossible to predict this one. it could open as low $8m or as high $14m. it should be somewhere in-between there at around $11.5m would be a safe bet.
in fourth place will be christopher nolan’s epic action drama ‘dunkirk’. it’s looking for a fifth weekend in the top 4, and should drop around 35% for another $7.1m to take it’s domestic cume over $165m. internationally it has taken $218m so far and it still has opening’s in italy, japan and china to come.
rounding out the top five will be ‘spider-man: homecoming’ taking in another $4.5m to take it’s domestic cume upto $315m. worldwide it topped $700m recently and should keep going to around $800m worldwide with a opening in china to come.
elsewhere keep an eye out for weinstein’s ‘wind river’ which expands into 694 theatres where it should take $1.8-2.5m.

Weekend Predictions

1 annabelle: creation – $16.1m
2 the hitman’s bodyguard – $15.5m
3 logan lucky – $11.4m
4 dunkirk – $7.2m
5 spider-man: homecoming – $4.5m
6 girl’s trip – $4.1m
7 the dark tower – $4.0m
8 the emoji movie – $3.9m
9 the nut job – $3.8m
10 kidnap – $2.8m
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