‘Annabelle: Creation’ To Take No.1 As Summer Slump Continues

as we get into the heart of august it doesn’t look like it’s going to be better in box office. after the disappointment of ‘the dark tower’ opening to a sub $20m three-day we might have one that could get near $25m – ‘annabelle: creation’. don’t expect ‘the dark tower’ to hold up well in it’s second weekend as other releases such as ‘the glass castle’ and ‘the nut job 2’ open. in other news ‘wonder woman’ topped $400m domestically as it looks to break the $800m barrier this weekend worldwide. also after the success of it’s limited release ‘wind river’ expands into 20 theatres and looks to take around $500k.

 

in first place will be annabelle: creation, which arguably is just a warm up to stephen king’s ‘it’, which looks to light up the box office in early september. still though, this horror film looks to easily take the box office away from the holdovers. the first annabelle film, simply titled ‘annabelle’ opened to $37.1m and went on to gross $84m domestically. i don’t think the sequel has the same hype and legs in it’s prequel, but it should still make some mulan. i think it will open to around $24-26m and should go on to around $55-60m domestically. internationally ‘annabelle’ took $172.6m to have a worldwide total of $256.9m so the international market looks like it’s where it will make it’s money. expect around $190m worldwide.
in second place should be ‘the nut job 2’, another new wide release. it should be nowhere near ‘annabelle: creation’ but should be able to hold off ‘dunkirk’ for second place. it’s predecessor opened in 2014 to $19.4m and went on to take $64m domestically. this sequel will be not quite as successful. instead, it should take $13m in it’s three day and if it’s lucky it could make $40m domestically. thing’s don’t look brighter in the international market where it should only make around $50m, so $90 worldwide.
 in third place will be the holdover of christopher nolan’s ‘dunkirk’ where it continues it’s impressive run in the north american market. it could drop as little as 35% this weekend, but 38% is more likely. that would put it at around $10.7m, which would take it’s domestic cume up to $153m. it should get to around $190m, maybe even $200m domestically and look for it to do well in china, italy and japan in september, so you should see it’s worldwide total near $550m. keep an eye out in the uk, where it’s still doing strong. it opened to $13m, then only dropped to $10.8M, and last weekend it took $6m to take it’s cume in the uk to over $50m, currently in fourth place for the year but should be in second place by the end of this weekend.
in fourth will be ‘the dark tower’, after taking the no.1 spot last weekend with $19.1m. it should drop from 55%-59%, putting it around a $8.2m second weekend. it shouldn’t take more than $45m domestically and $100 worldwide. in fifth will be ‘the emoji movie’ dropping around 47% to take another $6.3m with girl’s trip close behind where it should take $6.2m. watch out for that battle for fifth.
behind those two ‘spider-man: homecoming’ will take it’s domestic cume over $300m, halle berry’s ‘kidnap’ should drop around 52% to take $4.8m. ‘the glass castle’ starring brie larson and woody harrelson should open to around $4.5m this weekend. ‘wonder woman’ should continue it’s domestic run where it will eventually stop at around $405m. edgar wright’s ‘baby driver’ still has a slim chance of making $100m domestically. it’s currently at $98m and should take another $1.5m this weekend and the weekend after it should get to $100m. in other news oscar hopeful ‘wind river’ continues it limited release in 20 theatres where it should hope to take anywhere from $500k upto $750k.

Weekend Estimates:

1. Annabelle: Creation $24.5M
2. The Nut Job 2 – $12.7M
3. Dunkirk – $10.8M
4. The Dark Tower – $8.3M
5. The Emoji Movie – $6.3M
6. Girl’s Trip – $6.2M
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $5.6M
8. Kidnap – $4.8M
9. Detroit – $4.4M
10. Atomic Blonde – $3.9M
Other:
Wind River – $650K

 

next weekend ‘the hitman’s bodyguard’ and steven soderburgh’s ‘logan lucky’ hit the theatres. ‘thb’ should take around $18m and ‘logan lucky’ $15.5m.
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