‘The Dark Tower’ To Lead As Summer Slump Continues

this weekend marks the first weekend of august, and the summer slump already looks to continue. the summer is 8% behind the summer of 2016 and doesn’t look to get better since last august suicide squad opened to $133M and looking at the release schedule it looks like nothing will even break $25M. the new action film ‘the dark tower’ starring idris elba and matthew mcconaughey will take the no.1 spot. however, the production budget of the film is $60M, and use the rough rule (multiply the budget by 2.5) and the film after p&a’s cost around $150M. that’s a hefty price tag, however it looks like it should at least break even.
projections show ‘the dark tower’ at $20-$25M opening, enough to take no.1 spot and is quite respectable, but is still below what it should be. the studio is being conservative saying it will be around $19M, similar to recent release ‘atomic blonde’. the film i think will open to $21M and will carry on to around $45M in the north american market. from there it should make around $125M worldwide, a net loss of $25M. this is not a surprise considering the rotten tomatoes rating of just 18%.
after two weeks at the top christopher nolan’s personal ‘dunkirk’ will have to settle for second place in it’s third weekend. it’s not holding as well as his previous films, but that’s probably because it’s a war film, and war films never usually hold well, but this one is. it looks to drop around 42%-46% in it’s third weekend. it’s currently tracking around 5% ahead of ‘interstellar’ but it’s looking like it will be slightly less in it’s domestic total. that put’s it at around $185M. it should take anywhere from $15M all the way up to $17M in it’s third time at the weekend box office, putting it’s domestic cume up to $133M. worldwide it’s currently pacing around 45/55, but china and japan, two of the biggest international markets are still to come in early september so expect it to rocket around september.

 

in third place looks to be kathryn bigelow’s oscar hopeful ‘detroit’ about the 1967 riots. it opened to $365K in limited release last weekend and looks to go wide this weekend in 2,800 theatres. it could take as much as $15M but is more looking like $13-14M. Behind it will be ‘the emoji movie’ which challenged ‘dunkirk’ for the top spot last weekend and came out at the bottom. it should drop 49% in it’s second weekend, similar to ‘captain underpants’. the two films are tracking very similar with the later ending up grossing $72M in north america. it should take $12.5M in it’s second weekend to take it’s cume in the us and canada to around $50M.
in fifth will be ‘girls trip’, which is holding amazingly. it should only drop around 40% which means it will take in another $12M to take it’s domestic cume upto $87M. following will be ‘atomic blonde’ ($9.1M), ‘Spider-Man: homecoming’ ($7.4M), ‘Kidnap ($6.6M), ‘War For The Planet of The apes’ ($5.4M) and ‘despicable me 3’ rounding out the top 10 with $4.4M.
in other news the highly anticipated ‘wind river’ opens in four theatres and could take up to $100K. the review will be shortly released. ‘baby driver’ looks to take another $2.5M to take it’s domestic cume up to $97M.

 

Weekend Predictions:

1. the dark tower – $20.8M
2. dunkirk – $16.6M
3. Detroit – $13.8M
4. The Emoji Movie – $13.1M
5. Girls Trip – $12.1M
6. Atomic Blonde – $9.4M
7. Spider-man: Homecoming – $7.9M
8. Kidnap – $7.2M
9. War For The Planet of the apes – $5.9M
10. Despicable Me 3 – $4.6M
Other:
Wind river – $95K
Baby Driver – $2.5M

 

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