this weekend christopher nolan’s tenth feature film is coming to the big screens, and whilst early tracking put it slightly behind his last film, interstellar, recent tracking suggests that it could be more than his ninth film.
dunkirk should be able to take the no.1 spot whatever happens, whether it’s below $40m or above $60m. in this packed weekend we have holdovers war for the planet of the apes, spider-man: homecoming, New releases girls trip and valerian and baby driver continues to impress. Dunkirk stars harry styles, tom hardy, cillian murphy and kenneth branugh in this historical drama that puts nolan at his best. this is his best film since inception in 2010 and could be the first time he gets nominated for best director at the oscars next february. the early tracking about two weeks ago suggested that it would be around $43M, just below interstellar. all of nolan’s films have great multipliers, with inception having 5 and interstellar 3.8. Movieweb are reporting dunkirk will open to $60M, which is much higher than anticipated, but sounds right.
I think Dunkirk will open to $53M domestically and should go on around to $205M domestically and could go on to around $660M worldwide. this is quite an optimistic prediction, so absolute baseline it should be around $42M, a $180M domestic run and $570M worldwide.
War For The Planet of The Apes should drop around 49%-51% in it’s second weekend since they do quite well in it’s second weekend drops. that would put it around $28.3M and should be enough for second place. Next is a tight race from two new releases and the one spider-man: homecoming. spider-man: homecoming looks to take in $23M in it’s third weekend, however valerian and girls trip are both tracking in the high teens and low twenties. valerian will open to around $21M with girls trip at $19.5M.
Despicable me 3 will be in sixth place with $11.3M, followed by Baby Driver with another $6.5M, tHE biG sICK WITH $5.1m, WONDER WOMAN WITH $4.2m AND WISH UPON WITH $2.3m.
1. Dunkirk – $55.3m
2. War For The Planet of the apes – $28.3m
3. Spider-man: homecoming – $22.9m
4. Valerian: the city of a thousand planets – $20.8m
5. Girls trip – $19.4m
6. despicable me 3 – $11.4m
7. baby driver – $6.5m
8. The Big Sick – $5.1m
9. WoNDER woMAN – $4.2m
10. wISH uPON – $2.3m