Whilst August may be looking bleek in terms of the box office, july isn’t. with three major released coming, i look at what will be a success or a flop.
The anticipated Mcu version of Spider-Man: Homecoming is just around the corner, with it hitting 60% of it’s markets just this weekend. tom holland plays a young spider-man who after being thrilled with his encounter with the avengers, he wants more, but stark won’t play ball. in terms of the box office, this looks to be the biggest opening weekend for a character intro into the mcu, with estimates varying from $90M to $120M for it’s three-day. since spider-man is such a known character all over the world, this will also be a big success internationally, so don’t expect it just to shine in the north american market. i think it will open to around $106.4M and around $200M worldwide. the ratio between the north american market and the international market should be around 36/64. it’s domestic run will be around $300M, since the opening weekend should be around 34-36% of it’s gross. it that figure is correct, that puts spider-man homecoming around $860m WORLDWIDE, BUT I THINK IT WILL BE MORE AROUND THE $840m MARK.
War For The Planet Of The Apes
War For the planet of the apes hit’s theatres just three years after the success of it’s prequel, ‘dawn’, making over $700M worldwide. with the addition of legend woody harrelson into the cast, this looks to make around the same as dawn. Dawn of the planet of the apes opened to $73M, and ‘War’ is pacing at around the same speed, with estimates varying from the low 60’s to the low 70’s. I think it will open to $71M In the north american market, and have a similar pace to ‘dawn’, and should just about pass the $200M if it’s lucky with it’s competition. from there on the ratio i think will be slightly less than ‘dawn’, more around the 32/68 mark. it this is even remotely close to what it will be, then ‘War’ will make around $640M, less than ‘dawn’ but still a smash hit for a summer film.
Christopher Nolan’s ninth feature film comes to the screens on july 21, and is about the amazing true story of the battle of dunkirk. nolan’s films always tend to do amazingly in the box office, and this is no outlier. sure, it won’t be up there with the dark knight rises or inception, but it’s currently pacing in the tracking’s just below Intestellar, which wound up making $188M domestically and $675M worldwide. This also might Nolan’s first chance of nolan getting nominated for best director at the 90th academy awards. most tracking put’s dunkirk just above the $40M mark for it’s opening weekend, but i think it will open to $46M, a tad less than Interstellar. from there since Nolan’s films have such good multipliers in the north american market i think it will make $185M domestically, a multiplier inbetween inception and interstellar. i think the ratio will be quite similar to nolan’s last film, interstellar, where it was 28/72. this time i think it will be 29/71. if that it correct worldwide nolan’s ninth film will take around $637M.
whilst despicable me 3 took the headlines on the independence day weekend, sony’s baby driver took $21M for it’s three day and a spectacular $39M for it’s first week. this is already edgar wright’s highest grossing film in his career as a director, and it only looks to get better. Since wright’s films like nolan’s have really good multipliers, Baby Driver could make as much as $80m domestically. internationally i think the ratio will be in favour of the north american market, around 55/45, so worldwide it should make $150M. for many people, they’ll classify that as a FAILURE, but for a film with a production budget of $34M, this will be huge success for sony, maybe even more than Spider-Man: Homecoming.
July 7-9 2017
1. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $106M (Wk 1, N/a)
2. Despicable me 3 – $34.5M (Wk 2, -51%)
3. Baby Driver – $15M (wK 2, – 31.2%)
4. Wonder Woman – $9.8M (Wk 6, – 38.5%)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight – $7.2M (wK 3, -57.2%)
July 14-16 2017
1. War For The Planet of the apes – $69.1m (Wk 1, N/a)
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $50.9M (wK 2, -52%)
3. despicable me 3 – $17.8m (Wk 3, – 48.5%)
4. baby driver – $9.8m (Wk 3, -35%)
5. wonder woman – $5.5M (Wk 7, -44%)
July 21-23 2017
1. Dunkirk – $46.3M (Wk 1, n/a)
2. War For THe Planet of the apes – $33.1M (Wk 2, -52%)
3. spider-man: homecoming – $23.9M (Wk 3, -53%)
4. Despicable me 3 – $10.1M (Wk 4, -43%)
5. baby driver – $6.1M (Wk 4, -38%)