Transformers: The Last Knight – Box Office Prediction

A week from today, Transformers: The Last Knight appears primed to easily rule the #1 spot. The question is how the fifth entry in the franchise performs compared to its predecessors. Michael Bay is back in the director’s chair (reportedly for the final time) with returning cast members Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, Tyrese Gibson, Josh Duhamel, and John Turturro. Sir Anthony Hopkins and Nicola Peltz are new to the series. Most importantly, Optimus, Bumblebee, and plenty of Autobots and Decepticons return in their CG form.
The pic, with its reported $260 million budget, faces no other features opening directly against it. This Transformers franchise has shown itself to be critic proof over its decade of existence. That said, Knight‘s predecessor posted a series low domestically.
Let’s take a trip down box office grosses lane for these bots, shall we?
Transformers (2007)
Opening Weekend: $70.5 million three-day opening with $155 million over six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $319 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009)
Opening Weekend: $108.9 million three-day opening with $200 million five-day roll out. $402 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011)
Opening Weekend: $97.8 million three-day opening with $180.6 million six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $352 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014)
Opening Weekend: $100 million. $245 million total domestic gross.
As you can see, Age of Extinction earned more than $100 million less than the third entry. It’s also the only one that opened over a regular three-day release. The Last Knight debuts on Wednesday so you’ll be witnessing my guesstimate for its traditional weekend and five-day gross.
Whew… got all that?
I’m not sure this will fall much from what Extinction achieved, but I don’t see it earning really any more than the $245M eventual tally. It’s worth noting that this franchise makes a killing overseas and that should not change.  I could see a three-day haul in the mid 60s to 70s with a five-day take of $105-$115 million.

 

3-Day Opening Weekend: $74M
Domestic Cume: $215M
International cUME: $770m
wORLDWIDE cUME: $985m
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