with wonder woman already hitting theatres in the u.k., the box office predictions are still ranging from the conservative $65M to the bold and OPTIMISTIC $115M opening. with boxofficemojo not going to tell us their prediction until friday, looks like we’ll have to do this the old fashioned way, actual predicitons.
so, warner bros. says there expecting it to open to around the $65M mark, which is conservative but would still be an ok opening, higher than ant-man. man of steel opened to $115m, which is definitely out of reach for wonder woman but the opening isn’t the hardest part of the box office run to predict, it is the multiplier. for example, ant-man may have opened to $53m but it had a 3.3 multiplier whereas in the dc universe it is much higher. in batman v superman it was simply a terrible 2.0 multiplier but thankfully we can expect the opening for wonder woman to be around 40% of it’s gross, similar to man of steel. that would be a 2.5 multiplier, which is quite generous for a dc film, but i think it will be around 2.4.
onto the opening weekend. i’m not going to go through all of the websites and give an average of what they’re saying, i’m going with my gut, which always gets it right when it comes to box office and the oscars. considering the anticipation of the film, it will be much higher than what warner bros. are saying, but will not be as high as the optimistic $110M opening. so, i think it will be around the recent success of Logan, at $85-90M domestically, so $87.8M.
if that figure is correct, and the multiplier is around right, then it’s domestic run would be a $211M domestic run, give or take $10M each way. even though this is my prediction, dc films have such a reputation of dropping around 60% on their second weeekend, i think the opening will be more around $95M but will still give a domestic run of $211M, with a smaller multiplier of 2.2.
onto the international market. since wonder woman is such a big character, i think the ratio should be around 33//66 on the domestic to international. is that is so, then worldwide it will make $635M. this would be a brilliant success for warner bros. and it could be even more, my personal maximum would be $670M.
domestic opening: $92.8M
Domestic Multiplier: 2.3
domestic cume: $215M
international total: $440M
worldwide total: $660M