Box Office – It’s Kong Versus Wolverine

It’s King Kong versus Wolverine this weekend as Kong: Skull Island serves as the weekend’s lone new wide release. Not only is Skull Island hoping to top the weekend box office as it could be looking at a neck-and-neck finish with last weekend’s champ, but it hopes to join the ranks of recent hits such as Jordan Peele’s low budget horror breakout Get Out and last weekend’s $88.4 million debut of Logan, the fourth-largest R-Rated Opening of all-time, as the box office has seen its share of star performers as of late.

Kong: Skull Island is the second feature in the planned universe of films following 2014’s Godzilla. 2014’s Godzilla opened with a massive $93.1 million and went on to gross nearly $530 million worldwide on a $160 million budget. Kong: Skull Island carries a reported $185 million budget and current expectations are for a domestic opening around half of Godzilla’s opening take.

In terms of comparisons, we’ve been looking at comparable IMDb page view data for Kong versus films such as San Andreas, Pacific Rim and The Legend Of Tarzan and, unfortunately, there is no clear consensus, though the numbers suggest an opening below San Andreas’s $54.5 million debut should be expected.

hat said, for a Warner Bros. action film* opening in this many theatres an opening around $42 million is the average. Take that into consideration with industry expectations, which have the film opening around $45-50 million, and our $45.5 million prediction seems reasonable. The question is to wonder just how many eyeballs Kong loses given Logan is only in its second weekend. Without Logan we’d be expecting a weekend over $50 million, but given the competition a slightly smaller opening seems a safer bet.

After opening with $88.4 million last weekend, expectation would be for Logan to dip anywhere from 52-58% in its second weekend based on factors ranging from its “A-” CinemaScore, MPAA rating, genre, etc. We’re sticking to the lower end of that spectrum, anticipating a drop around 51.4% and a $42.7M million sophomore session, comparable to the second weekend drops of similar openers such as Skyfall. 

 

Weekend Forecasts

1 Kong: Skull Island – $45.5M

2 Logan – $42.7M

3 Get Out – $19M

4 The Shack – $8.9M

5 The LEGO Batman Movie – $6.9M

6 Hidden Figures – $3.0M

7 Before I Fall – $2.9M

8 John Wick: Chapter Two – $2.8M

9 La La Land – $2.6M

10 Fifty Shades Darker – $1.8M

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