Box Office – LEGO Batman To Lead Over The Great Wall, Fist Fight & Cure For Wellness

Presidents’ Day weekend last year was a monster thanks to the $152+ million four-day opening for Deadpool. The LEGO Batman Movie heads into the weekend with strong word of mouth, solid reviews and it remains the widest release of the weekend playing in over 4,000 theatres. LEGO Batman opening with $53.6M and we’re anticipating a ~32% drop for the three-day this weekend, puling in somewhere around $36 million. It should pull in $44M for the four-day weekend.

Fifty Shades Darker has so far performed mostly as expected. The film brought in $46.6 million in its opening weekend last week and delivered big time Valentine’s Day, pulling in $11 million, as its gross-to-date currently stands at $65.3 million. As for this weekend, the question is to obviously wonder just how far it will fall as Fifty Shades Of Grey dipped a massive 74% in it’s second weekend. I’m going for a 60% drop this weekend and a three-day around $18.6M and for the four-day weekend it should pull in $21.5M. That leaves the door open for one of the new releases to take second place.

Warner Bros. and New Line’s release of the Ice Cube and Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight is the first mainstream comedy of the new year. Fist Fight is opening in 3,185 theatres and a three-day around $19 million seems a strong possibility which would mean a four-day a touch above $22 million. That said, there is every possibility this one could push to $25 million for the three day and $29 million for the holiday weekend.

In fourth we’re anticipating a $17 million three-day, second weekend for John Wick: Chapter Two. The film delivered an impressive $30.4 million opening last weekend and received an A- Cinemascore from opening day audiences and currently holds a 8.4 user rating on IMDb, all of which are improvements over the first film. Question is, will that be enough to hold off the weekend’s next new wide release, Universal’s The Great Wall.

Starring Matt Damon, The Great Wall has already had a significant impact internationally where it has pulled in over $224 million since releasing in China in mid-December where it has pulled in over $170 million alone. Budgeted at a reported $150 million it has all the signs of being another film similar to Universal’s 2015 feature Warcraft, which dominated internationally to the tune of $386.3 million, yet couldn’t top $50 million domestically. It should take in at least $15M in three days and should take in $17M in the four-day weekend.

Meanwhile, Hidden Figures will be looking to top $140M domestically, Split should top $120M, La La Land will be looking to go over $130M domestically and Arrival hopes to become the 29th release of 2016 to top $100M domestically.

Three-Day Forecast

The LEGO Batman Movie (4,088 theatres) – $36.0 M

Fist Fight (3,185 theatres) – $19.0 M

Fifty Shades Darker (3,715 theatres) – $19.0 M

John Wick: Chapter Two (3,113 theatres) – $17.0 M

The Great Wall (3,326 theatres) – $15.0 M

A Cure for Wellness (2,704 theatres) – $6.5 M

Hidden Figures (2,217 theatres) – $5.9 M

A Dog’s Purpose (2,391 theatres) – $5.3 M

Split (2,442 theatres) – $5.2 M

Lion (1,542 theatres) – $4.3 M

 

Other:

La La Land – $2.3M

Arrival – $400K

The Founder – $450K

 

Four-Day Forecast:

The LEGO Batman Movie (4,088 theatres) – $44.0 M

Fist Fight (3,185 theatres) – $22.4 M

Fifty Shades Darker (3,715 theatres) – $22.3 M

John Wick: Chapter Two (3,113 theatres) – $20.0 M

The Great Wall (3,326 theatres) – $17.1 M

A Cure for Wellness (2,704 theaters) – $7.9 M

Hidden Figures (2,217 theatres) – $7.0 M

A Dog’s Purpose (2,391 theatres) – $6.3 M

Split (2,442 theatres) – $6.2 M

Lion (1,542 theaters) – $5.2 M

Other:

La La Land – $2.8M

Arrival – $500K

The Founder – $550K

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