Heading toward an easy finish at #1, WB’s The LEGO Batman Movie. The film lifts off into 4,088 theaters this weekend with Thursday previews beginning at 5PM and the reviews have it at a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. As for WB, they are being extremely conservative, anticipating a $60 million opening, which is a shade below the median when looking at what Mojo’s pre-release model suggests, pegging the film at an opening anywhere from $56-$65.24 million based on a variety of factors, all compared to historical performances for animated features. All that said, we’re going even higher with our forecast, anticipating an opening anywhere from $75-80 million based heavily on IMDb page view data, the goodwill earned from the first film and the Batman factor.
In second we’re looking at a $40+ million opening for Fifty Shades Darker, which may raise an eyebrow considering Fifty Shades Grey’s $85.1M opening. you have to consider the circumstances. The 2015 release of Fifty Shades of Grey was something of a perfect storm with the hype surrounding the racy adaptation of E.L. James’ novel as well as the Valentine’s and President’s Day timing. Taking that into consideration, our $43.5 million forecast should also come with an asterisk, as Fifty Shades Darker will benefit over the week to come with Valentine’s Day falling on Tuesday. After that, it will likely play a little more closely to films of this sort rather than experiencing a drop similar to the massive 74% dip Fifty Shades of Grey endured over its second weekend.
Summit’s release of John Wick: Chapter Two is looking at a third place finish with an opening north of $20 million. The first film was a bit of an out-of-nowhere surprise, opening with $14.4 million in October 2014 and ultimately pulling in $43 million domestically and $86 million worldwide on a $20 million budget. Overall, we’re anticipating an opening around $26 million from 3,113 theaters while at the same time wondering… Is there an off-chance it could top $30 million?
In fourth, look for the three week box office champion Split to finish with $7.6 million or so after it topped $100 million domestically this past Tuesday. And rounding out the top five we have another new member in the century club, Hidden Figures, which should pull in around $6.4 million this weekend as it pushes over $130 million domestically.
- The LEGO Batman Movie (4,088 theaters) – $76.0 M
- Fifty Shades Darker (3,710 theaters) – $43.5 M
- John Wick: Chapter Two (3,113 theaters) – $26.0 M
- Split (2,957 theaters) – $7.6 M
- Hidden Figures (2,667 theaters) – $6.4 M
- Rings (2,931 theaters) – $6.1 M
- A Dog’s Purpose (3,021 theaters) – $5.5 M
- La La Land (2,065 theaters) – $5.3 M
- Lion (1,337 theaters) – $3.0 M
- The Space Between Us (2,758 theaters) – $2.3 M